This list will
help non-scientists to interrogate advisers and to grasp the limitations of
evidence, say William J. Sutherland, David Spiegelhalter and Mark A. Burgman.
Calls for the
closer integration of science in political decision-making have been
commonplace for decades. However, there are serious problems in the application
of science to policy — from energy to health and environment to education…….Of
course, others will have slightly different lists. Our point is that a wider
understanding of these 20 concepts by society would be a marked step forward.
1. Differences
and chance cause variation.
2.
No
measurement is exact.
3.
Bias
is rife.
4.
Bigger
is usually better for sample size.
5.
Correlation
does not imply causation.
6.
Regression
to the mean can mislead.
7.
Extrapolating
beyond the data is risky.
8.
Beware
the base-rate fallacy.
9.
Controls
are important.
10.
Randomization
avoids bias.
11.
Seek
replication, not pseudoreplication.
12.
Scientists
are human..
13.
Significance
is significant.
14.
Separate
no effect from non-significance.
15.
Effect
size matters.
16.
Study
relevance limits generalizations.
17.
Feelings
influence risk perception.,
18.
Dependencies
change the risks.
19.
Data
can be dredged or cherry picked.
20.
Extreme
measurements may mislead.
To Read More……
No comments:
Post a Comment